Research on Judgment and Decision Making

This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field which investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on ‘connections’ explore memory, explanation, and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on ‘controversies’ presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field.

• Offers an insider’s view of the field in a major introductory chapter that puts the issues in historical context • Provides perspective and breadth, which will allow students to focus on areas of particular interest to them • Broad and recent papers cover trends in the field, connections with other psychology subdisciplines, and controversial issues

Part I. Introduction: 1. Judgment and decision research: some historical context William M. Goldstein and Robin M. Hogarth; Part II. Currents: 2. Reason-based choice Eldar Shafir, Itamar Simonson and Amos Tversky; 3. Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage and Heinz Kleinbolting; 4. Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment Kenneth R. Hammond, Robert M. Hamm, Janet Grassia, and Tamra Pearson; 5. The adaptive decision maker: effort and accuracy in choice John W. Payne, James R. Bettman and Eric J. Johnson; 6. Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing Joshua Klayman and Young-Won Ha; 7. Learning from feedback: exactingness and incentives Robin M. Hogarth, Brian J. Gibbs, Craig R. M. McKenzie and Margaret A. Marquis; 8. Covariation in natural causal induction Patricia W. Cheng and Laura R. Novick; 9. Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won Daniel Kahneman and Carol A. Varey; 10. The Process-performance paradox in expert judgment: how can experts know so much and predict so badly? Colin F. Camerer and Eric J. Johnson; 11. Intertemporal choice George Loewenstein and Richard H. Thaler; 12. Not me or thee but we: the important of group identity in eliciting cooperation in dilemna situations: experimental manipulations Robyn M. Dawes, Alphons J. C. van de Kragt and John M. Orbell; 13. Predicting a changing taste: do people know what they will like? Daniel Kahneman and Jackie Snell; 14. Endowment and contrast in judgment of well-being Amos Tversky and Dale Griffin; Part III. Connections: 15. The relationship between memory and judgment depends on whether the judgment task is memory-based or on-line Reid Hastie and Bernadette Park; 16. Explanation-based decision making: effects of memory structure on judgment Nancy Pennington and Reid Hastie; 17. Decision making under ignorance: arguing with yourself Robin M. Hogarth and Howard Kunreuther; 18. Positive affect and decision making Alice M. Isen; Part IV. Controversies: 19. The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment: a thirty-year retrospective Michael E. Doherty and Berndt Brehmer; 20. Islanders and hostages: deep and surface structures of decision problems Willem A. Wagenaar, Gideon Keren and Sarah Lichtenstein; 21. Content and discontent: indications and implications of domain specificity in preferential decision making William M. Goldstein and Elke U. Weber; 22. The case for rules in reasoning Edward E. Smith, Cristopher Langston and Richard E. Nisbett; 23. An alternative metaphor in the study of judgment and choice: people as politicians Philip E. Tetlock; 24. Between hope and fear: the psychology of risk Lola L. Lopes.