Subjective Probability: The Real Thing

This book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability is a mode of judgment. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and synthesis of a lifetime of wrestling with these problems and issues. After an introduction to basic probability theory, there are chapters on scientific hypothesis-testing, on changing your mind in response to generally uncertain observations, on expectations of the values of random variables, on de Finetti’s dissolution of the so-called problem of induction, and on decision theory.

• A summation of a life’s work in probability by one of the pre-eminent figures in the field • Jeffrey’s name will be the key selling-point • Potentially large inter-disciplinary sale (as with, say, Pearl’s Causality)

1. Probability primer; 2. Testing scientific theories; 3. Probability dynamics; collaboration; 4. Expectation primer; 5. Updating on statistics; 6. Choosing.